The $200,000 Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile Stakes December 26 at Santa Anita is a handicapping puzzle that will force bettors to analyze a host of variables in the opening day turf race for three year-old colts.
The conversation begins with 5/2 morning line favorite Heart to Heart who ships to the west coast for trainer Brian Lynch after capturing a pair of graded stakes wins at Churchill Downs. Heart to Heart has four wins in five lifetime turf starts, and has never lost on firm footing which he should find on the Santa Anita green. In Heart to Heart’s four turf wins, each were earned in gate to wire fashion. However, in the Mathis Brothers, Heart to Heart may not inherit the early lead as easily as he has in previous races.
Home Run Kitten (6/1) is an interesting proposition for trainer David Hoffmans. The Kitten’s Joy colt won a Grade 3 stakes sprinting over the Santa Anita turf before trying the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint where he ran a disappointing eleventh. The stretch back to a mile is of little concern, however, as Home Run Kitten gave a good account of himself at the distance last spring and summer at Santa Anita including a win in the Singletary Stakes. A fast early pace would benefit Home Run Kitten’s closing style.
Sawyer’s Hill (12/1) has run his last three races at the mile and one eight distance, but looks best-suited for a flat mile. The son of Spring At Last should appreciate the reduced distance and could find a comfortable trip stalking the early pace.
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