Firing LIne Flies Under the KY Derby Radar

 The two colts are not only the likely top two choices, but also share the same Hall of Fame trainer in Bob Baffert. While it’s difficult to find a fault with either horse, it’s at least worth noting which Derby hopeful might not be getting his proper due. Astute handicappers haven’t forgotten about Firing Line’s back-to-back losses by a head to the undefeated Dortmund in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity and Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Firing Line then took the path of least resistance to earn enough qualifying points for the Derby by winning the Sunland Park Derby by an easy 14 ¼ lengths against second-tier competition.

Disproportionate and dismissive odds 

The value-conscious handicapper will surely take note of what Firing Line’s Kentucky Derby odds are likely to be in comparison to Dortmund’s. While the latter will almost assuredly be sent to post at odds of 5/1 or less, Firing Line’s price could be anywhere from 15/1 to 30/1 with horses such Carpe Diem, Materiality, Upstart, Baffert’s high-profile pair, and a host of others a cinch to receive more betting action.

Seeing is believing 

But the proof is in the past performances. Firing Line is capable of matching a horse like Dortmund step for step on his best day. Betting a 20 horse race like the Derby involves much more decision-making than a direct comparison of two races that happened three and four and a half months ago respectively, but beginning one’s race analysis by zeroing in on an undervalued prospect is rarely a bad decision.