Kentucky Derby 2025: Burnham Square has the tools to win

Kentucky Derby 2025: Burnham Square has the tools to win

Category : News - Tue 29/04/2025 - 07:42 EDT

The first race of the Triple Crown series happens Saturday, May 3 at Churchill Downs: the $5 million Kentucky Derby! Featuring 20 of the best three-year-olds in the country, the Kentucky Derby is a demanding 1 ¼-mile dirt test that awards its winner the lion’s share of that purse, an iconic blanket of roses, and a place in horse racing history.

Burnham Square To win the Kentucky Derby
+1400
Bovada

It is one of the best betting races of the year – and furthermore, if you’re looking forward to  betting the Belmont Stakes in New York five weeks later, you absolutely want to play the Kentucky Derby, too. Not only do many of the Kentucky Derby horses go on to run in the Preakness and Belmont, but they’re all just great betting opportunities on their own.

Keep reading to find out the best horses in the Kentucky Derby, and the best places to bet horse racing online in New York.

Where to Bet the Kentucky Derby

If you want the best experience betting the Kentucky Derby online in New York, on Kentucky Derby day and beyond, the best bet is to sign up at an online racebook. There are many options, but our experts have done the research and know  the best horse betting sites. Take a few minutes, read our reviews, and make a confident choice – it’s that simple!

Every recommended site has the basics: trusted payouts, a logical user interface, and market-leading odds. They also have racebook bonus offers that you’ll never find at the track like sign-up and deposit bonuses, referral benefits, and even rebates that pay you back in real money for every bet you make on horse racing!

These are the odds at the top of the Kentucky Derby market at the top New York racebooks:

Kentucky Derby Handicapping

These are the official entrants for the 2025 Kentucky Derby, along with their post positions, trainers, jockeys, and morning line odds:

  1. Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert / Martin Garcia) - 20/1
  2. Neoequos (Saffie Joseph, Jr. / Flavien Prat) - 30/1
  3. Final Gambit (Brad Cox / Luan Machado) - 30/1
  4. Rodriguez (Bob Baffert / Mike Smith) - 12/1
  5. American Promise (D. Wayne Lukas / Nic Juarez) - 30/1
  6. Admire Daytona (Yukihiro Kato / Christophe Lemaire) - 30/1
  7. Luxor Cafe (Noriyuki Hori / Joao Moreira) - 15/1
  8. Journalism (Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli) - 3/1
  9. Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes / Brian Hernandez, Jr.) - 12/1
  10. Grande (Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez) - 20/1
  11. Flying Mohawk (Whit Beckman / Joseph Ramos) - 30/1
  12. East Avenue (Brendan Walsh / Manny Franco) - 20/1
  13. Publisher (Steve Asmussen / Irad Ortiz) - 20/1
  14. Tiztastic (Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario) - 20/1
  15. Render Judgment (Kenny McPeek / Julien Leparoux) - 30/1
  16. Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley / Juan Vargas) - 30/1
  17. Sandman (Mark Casse / Jose Ortiz) - 6/1
  18. Sovereignty (Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado) - 5/1
  19. Chunk of Gold (Ethan West / Jareth Loveberry) - 30/1
  20. Owen Almighty (Brian Lynch / Javier Castellano) - 30/1
  21. Baeza (John Shirreffs / Flavien Prat) - ALSO ELIGIBLE - 12/1

Baeza will only draw in if at least one horse scratches from the main field before 9:00 a.m. Friday morning, when Kentucky Derby betting begins.

Don’t forget that, even though the morning line can be a good guide as to which horses are expected to be heavily bet or not, it is not a guaranteed price on track. Odds on track are not final until the gates open. Assure yourself the best odds by betting at an online racebook. Since online racebooks offer fixed-odds betting on big races like the Kentucky Derby, you can lock in an overlay on your pick just by placing a bet, and then watch the race confident in your payout!

Kentucky Derby Best Bet

Burnham Square is the best bet in the Kentucky Derby. The winner of the Blue Grass (G1) in his last start, he rallied to run down East Avenue, a confirmed frontrunner who was already a top-level winner over the course. This time he will have a lot more horses battling on the pace, meaning a late run can be even more effective.

Burnham Square To win the Kentucky Derby
+1400
BetOnline

It’s also a good thing that Burnham Square is more tractable than a deep closer; he can come from the clouds if necessary, but can also run a winning race from some place off the pace but more in touch, often a useful dimension at Churchill Downs. From a good middle gate, Burnham Square will be a good middle-priced value bet to get the trip in the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby Favorites

The chalk in the 2025 Kentucky Derby will be Journalism, and he deserves that status. He is undefeated at two turns, including tearing through a strong Southern California spur of the Kentucky Derby trail. He is tactical enough to avoid the fiery pace battle, and he proved in the Santa Anita Derby that he can handle trouble and still win. This adds up to a favorite who should run well.

Sandman and Sovereignty should also be near the top of the market. Sovereignty is preferred between the two: he is already a graded-stakes winner at Churchill Downs, so proven over the course, and his late-running style should get a perfect setup. Sandman also gets the similar setup, but the way he lugged late in the Arkansas Derby (G1) suggests he has more growing up to do mentally, which raises a question despite his undeniable talent.

Kentucky Derby Exotics

Two to consider for exotics are Chunk of Gold and Grande. Chunk of Gold, second in the last two preps at Fair Grounds, should thrive with a fast pace in front of him, and will be a big price given his under-the-radar connections. Grande has run only three times, but comes off of a very good second in the Wood Memorial, the last prep at Aqueduct in New York, and will get a much better setup this time than he did when running at a loose-on-the-lead Rodriguez.

Chunk of Gold To win the Kentucky Derby
+3000
WagerWeb

Kentucky Derby Day Wagering

Kentucky Derby Day features the same wagers you can play all year long. The most basic are straight wagers on single horses such as win, place, and show. These pay off if your horse runs first, second, or third, and they are great if you have a strong opinion on a single horse.

You can also get ambitious and go for exotic wagers: they pay more, but they are harder to get correct. The exacta, trifecta, and superfecta require you to pick the first two, three, or four horses in the correct order. Some bettors like to box them: it costs more, but covers all the combinations. Especially if there are particular horses you like more, playing a key or part-wheel can be just the ticket, since they build around the horses you think have better chances.

You can also play multi-race bets. A Daily Double requires you to pick the winners of two races in a row. A Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5, and Pick 6 require you to pick winners of 3, 4, 5, or 6. races in a row. Kentucky Derby Day also features special wagers as well like the Oaks/Derby double, the three-year-old Pick 3, and an all-dirt-stakes Pick 5.

Kentucky Derby Bets

You have your account at the right New York betting site for your playing style, you know the kinds of wagers, and you’ve met the Kentucky Derby horses. Now, it’s just time to get your bet down!

Here are the best bets for the 2025 Kentucky Derby:

  • $20 win/place/show: #9 Burnham Square
  • $1 Exacta Key: #9 Burnham Square with #8 Journalism, #18 Sovereignty, #19 Chunk of Gold
  • $1 Trifecta Key: #9 Burnham Square with #8 Journalism, #17 Sandman, #18 Sovereignty, #19 Chunk of Gold
  • $1 Superfecta Key: #9 Burnham Square with #8 Journalism, #10 Grande, #17 Sandman, #18 Sovereignty, #19 Chunk of Gold
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