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Predictions of the Prince of Wales Stakes 2019
The race for a Triple Crown wages on — only this time, it's the Canadian Triple Crown, not the American. Tuesday's Prince of Wales Stakes is the second leg of the crown and it promises to be a doozy! Get ready for race time with these betting tips and picks!
The 84th running of the Prince of Wales Stakes takes place on Tuesday, July 23 from the Fort Erie Race Track in Ontario, Canada. It’s the signature event of the track and the second jewel of Canada’s esteemed Triple Crown series. Just before race day, Prince of Wales betting odds is pegged by sportsbooks at:
- One Bad Boy (+140)
- Avie’s Flatter (+250)
- Skywire (+300)
- Tone Broke (+500)
- He’s A Macho Man (+800)
The run goes one and three-sixteenth miles and is reserved for three-year-old horses. While it’s a small field at five, the winning purse of $400,000 is anything but small. Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Tuesday’s start time:
Fallout From Queens Plate
The first leg — and oldest race — of Canada’s Triple Crown series, Queen’s Plate, took place three weeks ago in Toronto and it was a dash to the finish. With a whopping $1 million at stake, One Bad Boy held off Avie’s Flatter to triumph at the race.
Starting with +350 odds, One Bad Boy posted a winning time of 2:02:98, outlasting 13 other colts in the jam-packed field.
It’s worth noting where soon-to-be Price of Wales runners placed at Queen’s Plate. Coming right behind Avie’s Flatter was Tone Broke in third. He’s A Macho Man — best name among the group if we say so ourselves — was fourth. All the way in 11th was Skywire.
Only 12 races have ever completed a clean sweep of the Triple Crown races in a single year.
The last time a horse pulled off the feat was Wando way back in 2003. That’s the type of history One Bad Boy has against him at Prince of Wales and the following Breeders’ Stakes, the final jewel of the crown.
Not that One Bad Boy needs any extra motivation, but the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation is handing out a $500,000 bonus in he can pull off the trifecta.
Prince of Wales Stakes Picks
With such a short field, here’s a breakdown of the competing horses on Tuesday:
One Bad Boy
No surprise here, but the Queen’s Plate victor drew the No. 1 post for the Prince of Wales. What really makes One Bad Boy an appealing bet is his jockey, Flavien Prat.
The 26-year-old rider etched his name in history at the 2019 Kentucky Derby, leading Country Horse to an upset bid. Sure, the finish was marred in controversy after Maximum Security was disqualified, but there’s no taking away from Prat’s brilliant efforts in pulling off the shocker.
There was a lot to like from One Bad Boy at Queen’s Plate, too. Between his nice touch of early speed, tempo-setting pace, and overall poise down the stretch, he’s the rightful favorite heading into Tuesday.
Most pegged this three-year-old as the horse to beat at Queen’s Plate, including the sportsbooks. While it was not to be, Avie’s Flater still delivered a strong performance.
The horse was neck and neck with One Bad Boy, until the latter broke away in the final sixteenth.
Avie Flater will break from the No. 2 position at Fort Erie. He’s jockeyed by Javier Castellano, one of the best riders in the world. Matter of fact, the Venezuelan has ranked top-three in earnings each of the past eight years — not a bad resume at all!
Mark Casse is the trainer behind Skywire and he’s looking to build on an already-historic 2019 campaign. Both the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes were won by Casse-trained horses in War of Will and Sir Winston, respectively. He returns to Fort Erie, a track he’s won four times before.
Casse’s checkered past is tough to overlook, but so is Skywire’s run at Queens Plate. He was “swiped” by Tone Broke at the gate, ending his chances before they even started. Maybe it was a fluke occurrence, but without any real momentum entering Queen of Stakes, it gives us plenty of pause.
He rattled Skywire’s chances at Queen’s Stake and finished third to the surprise of many. Now Tone Broke is back and running in familiar territory. The Canadian-bred horse was actually trained in Ontario by Sean Fitzhenry.
He’s certainly the feel-good pick on Tuesday, but we’re not expecting a Hollywood-like ending for him.
He’s A Macho Man
While we love this colt’s name, we don’t feel the same about his odds to win. There’s little that sticks out about He’s A Macho Man — good-but-not-great performance at Queen’s Stake and little pedigree in jockey and trainer (at least compared to aforementioned racers).
Save your money and skip out on He’s A Macho Man.
All in all, we like One Bad Boy and Avie’s Flater’s chances most.
Both are very deserving of a bet, but if we’re making only one bet, we’re going to lay it on the favorite. One Bad Boy showed his mettle at Queen’s Stake, finding an extra gear down the stretch. That level of clutchness gives us a lot of confidence in him to do the same in Fort Erie.
Betting pick: One Bad Boy (+140)
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